Seeing the present clearly.

Today I thought about…… Seeing the present clearly. 

A tweet about how an investor’s job is to see the present really clearly may be the best preamble to this thought. As I eluded in yesterday’s thought, a determinate optimist has an opinion and invests resources (i.e. time and money) accordingly. 

This brings about the question of whether one believes they can predict the future. The answer is no. However, the future is rooted in the present. 

It’s like what Dan Gilbert said about imaginations and the future…that it’s anchored by the present….no matter how audacious. Only in a world where cars are everywhere will people think about flying cars, not something those riding horses would be able to imagine. 

So, a view towards the future needs to arise from what one sees in the present. For this opinion to be of any significant value (i.e. creating something new, having a material impact, etc…) it needs to be different from any widely held view today. 

It’s not a matter of being contrarian for contrarian’s sake. Most times, contrarians are wrong. But, when they’re right…it pays off in a massive way. I remember Bezos saying this in a Vanity Fair? interview…..but it’s nothing a Joe Kim somewhere wouldn’t have said. 

But I don’t think most contrarians actually go out looking to ruffle feathers. Some do….I would be lying if I didn’t get a kick out of taking the opposite stance of a popular opinion just for the sake of it….but it’s rather the popular opinion gets so delusional that the contrarian has merely chosen to sit and think. 

It’s the thinking process that leads to an independent opinion where one has no choice but to seem contrarian. 

So, how does one see the present clearly? Does it require reading a lot of literature? Does it require being an early adopter of new technology? Maybe. 

Though, this takes me down a different train of thought….what is the present I see amid the bubble of personal circumstances? 

It draws a blank as I don’t know where to start. I see one that is overtly distracted. It only took me a week of using Slack to determine it was a dangerous tool that most seemed to be mismanaging. Despite the overwhelming research saying we can’t multi-task….it is only easier and easier with multi-screen phones, screens everywhere, notifications everywhere….

I see one that is obsessed with immediacy. Whether it’s running projects (A/B testing), dating (swiping), boredom (face unlocking phones instantly)…..to the convenience of instant delivery, TV shows everywhere and all at once to binge in a day (thank you Netflix)…. 

I see one where discipline seems to wane. I quit social media two years ago…but the outrage that seems to be prevalent on these tools seems rather odd. If you don’t like Facebook having your data or controlling your behaviour…don’t use it. 

I also see one of hope where more and more individuals are trying to leverage their unique interests to make a living. Recently I learned about a Youtuber with a cooking channel who used to be a graphic designer but merged two interests. Maybe it’s the increased outlet for human creativity to blossom.

I guess this can be one deduction in the future. But I fear it’s not a new one. It seems to be most common rhetoric in fact. A rhetoric that the future will be filled with individuals who make a living merging their unique interests. That there will be many ecosystems that support such a pursuit. That it will be really hard for most to achieve this because they demand immediacy and lack discipline. 

Hence, most will not be able to see their projects through when nothing seems to work for a long time….and I think this is normal in the pursuit of creative endeavours. So, the companies that provide a service that supports the creators and creatives through their product and/or creating the right environment for them to pursue such interests….will probably be the ones to succeed.

I mean, I think Youtube, Spotify, Instagram are products that support these things right now. But they all seem so obvious. Maybe there will be something that just seems so ridiculous…but it will solve a singular purpose of letting people live a life off their creativity….something not as obvious as the ones now….maybe this means Etsy, eBay and the like have a long way to go. The same can be said for Shopify. 

But….they all seem obvious….maybe the tell should be the things value investors make fun of. I doubted Shopify and Square five years ago….and much of my thought was influenced by the value investors I surrounded myself with. So maybe this can be one such litmus test to look for something that is ridiculous. 

This is one model I hope I can remember. Thinking of my circle of competence…and remembering to stay within it….my view of the present will be very different from that of another. The constant learning may open up my berth but such a view of the present is another unique thing to keep in mind. 

Though obvious, I say this because I forget my view might actually be unique. A desire for humility may lead to downplaying my views….but what’s the use of not betting on such an opinion? A little confidence (and a hint of arrogance/exuberance) may be required to trust one’s view of the present it seems. 

The pondering continues...